Selective Attrition and Fertility Behavior after Exogenous (Weather) Shocks

Jorge I. Ugaz, University of Chicago

This present study tries to ascertain whether natural disasters, like typhoons or hurricanes, affect fertility behavior differently for certain families. Focusing on the effects of the severe typhoon season that affected the Philippines in 1984, this study relies on census data to determine if such exogenous shocks cause selective attrition on fertility behavior in the most affected or vulnerable families, making them to temporarily postpone or cancel their fertility plans. The empirical methodology includes long-term trend analysis and, more importantly, a difference-in-difference-in-difference approach. Preliminary findings show that, in a typhoon’s aftermath, less-educated households were more likely to postpone having children than better-educated households. Potential sources of bias and selection, including child-survival and internal migration, are addressed.

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Presented in Session 201: Population Dynamics and Weather Changes: Experiences, Practices, and Implications