Demographic Change, the Impact Model, and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Kevin J. A. Thomas, Pennsylvania State University
Tukufu Zuberi, University of Pennsylvania

In this paper, the implications of demographic processes for future changes in the demand and access to food are evaluated. Given the fact that population growth is a major influence on the consumption and availability of food (Alexandratos 2005; Godfray et al. 2010), particular attention is given to the ways in which sub-Saharan Africa’s exceptionally high growth rates are likely to affect prospects for achieving food security. Furthermore, the chapter discusses the extent to which the impacts of growth-induced changes on population composition will mediate the influence of population growth on food security among economically vulnerable populations. In what ways, for example, will changes in Africa’s population living in poverty affect the dynamics of food security over the next four decades? Moreover, how will the changing size of Africa’s child population affect children’s exposure to the risks of malnutrition?

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Presented in Session 54: Environment, Food, and Health