Projection of Older Adults with Disability under the Demo-Socio-Economic Factors in China, 2006-2050

Lei Zhang, Peking University
Xiaoying Zheng, Peking University

China has one of the largest ageing populations who met a big challenge on burden of disability. This study creates a new model to predict the changing tendency of ageing population with disability. A cross-sectional data of Second China Sample Survey on Disability is used, with the sample size of 2,526,145. We combines PDE model with the methods of static covariate-direct prediction, static covariate by type prediction and dynamic covariate effect prediction respectively. The future total number, and growth rate of older adults with disabilities in China are very striking. Under scenario II, about 1.5 million of older adults increase annually from 2006 to 2040 and more than 2.5 million increase annually from 2040 to 2050. Total number in 2050 is 3.05 times of 2006. Besides, population ageing, sex, residence, marital status, education, income and provincial GDP per capita all significantly affect the prevalence of disability among the older adults.

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Presented in Session 213: Modelling Health and Disability