A Dynamic Birth-Death Model Using Intrinsic Linkage

Robert Schoen, Pennsylvania State University

Intrinsic linkages provide a new approach to modeling discrete populations with changing vital rates. A new parameter, w, is introduced that reflects how the time t growth rate of births is an average of current and past vital rates. When w is constant over time, new relationships are found that describe dynamic relationships between population rates and structures, including expressions for the model growth rate when period growth increases according to a known function and model values under cyclical stability and stationarity. The Intrinsic Linkage approach thus extends present methods for modeling dynamic birth-death models, providing new insights into population dynamics and additional tools for demographic analysis.

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Presented in Session 144: Mathematical Demography