Anticipating China's Unmarried Males: Stochastic Microprojections of Marriage Market Outcomes under Demographic Uncertainty

Ethan J. Sharygin, University of Pennsylvania

Low fertility and high sex ratios in China have combined to create a large population of unmarried adult males. In order to compliment studes of consequences, this paper attempts to estimate the scale of non-marriage in light of China's demographic dynamics. An increasing share of the Chinese population is attaining secondary and post-secondary education. I show that marriage and fertility rates in China are responding in ways that will affect the patterns of male and female non-marriage. Projections from a novel agent-based model suggest that marriage delay for males and females will result in greater period shares non-married. Further, marriage delay will have possible tempo effects on the total fertility rate that should be anticipated.