Fertility Trends and Processes in Japan: Re-Examination of Marital Fertility

Ryuichi Kaneko, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan

In this study, first I calculated the total marital fertility rates in long time series for the first time in Japan from series of national representative surveys. Then I reconstruct the historical development of the age specific fertility rates experienced by Japanese female cohorts to identify when the reduction was initiated by which cohort and what was followed among the successive cohorts. According to the observation on the Lexis mapping of reconstructed rates, it was the female cohort born in early 1950's that initiated the transformation process lasting until today with simple childbearing delay caused by marriage postponement. The detailed observation reveals more comprehensive view on the life course transformation in the society. 　The results will be revised with new data from most recent surveys in 2005 and 2010. The revision will include observation and discussion on causes of the recent fertility rebound in Japan.