The Demographic Transition: How Do Advanced Stage Developing Countries Illuminate the Path to Other Countries?

Eduardo L. G. Rios-Neto, Cedeplar, UFMG

Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs investigated the economic growth of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and came out with the concept of BRIC economies. He has also identified other eleven (11) countries that have the potential to become the largest economies in the world. The demographic transition is back at the center of the debate with new syntheses of the global context, highlighting different demographic indicators. These indicators applied to BRICS and N-11 countries illuminate demographic paths of less developed economies. In this paper we argue that there are four main areas that might pose a challenge to these countries and should be looked carefully by policy makers and economists: population aging, the demographic dividends, intergenerational transfers, social support and health care provision for the elderly.