Allocation of State-Level Estimates of the Unauthorized Population to Small Areas Geographies

Miguel Flores, University of Texas at San Antonio
Lila Valencia, University of Texas at San Antonio
Lloyd Potter, University of Texas at San Antonio

While previous research on the estimation of unauthorized immigrant populations have often employed the residual method, this method produces some challenges when attempting to produce estimates at lower geographies. Specifically, data limitations and availability restrict estimates to the state level. In this study, we employ a methodology that combines census population data with new administrative data, allowing us to provide estimates of the total unauthorized population and its distribution at sub-state level geographies. We employ a methodology that combines Internal Revenue Service Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers data, which include data down to the zip code, and American Community Survey sociodemographic characteristics to model estimates of the unauthorized population at sub-state geographies. Results suggest this method may be effective in producing estimates of the unauthorized population at sub-state geographies.