Can Increasing Longevity Come to Halt? Alternative Paths of Longevity in Latin America

Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Laeticia R. de Souza, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Marcos Gonzaga, Cedeplar, UFMG

We calculate potential losses in life expectancy at age 50 that will be experienced in the next 20 to 30 years for a number of countries in Latin America. These potential losses are attributable to changes in the composition of cohorts according to early exposures. They are estimated by first assessing the relative proportion of the population sixty and over that experienced deleterious early conditions when they were below age 10 and then by evaluating mortality excess due to heart disease and diabetes that are associated with early conditions. Our results produce bounds that suggest that the next ten to twenty years could see considerable deceleration in the pace of increase of life expectancies over age 50.