Fertility Change in Canada, 1971-2007: Persistence of a Countercyclical Pattern

Frank Trovato, University of Alberta

This study evaluates whether fertility in Canada between 1971 and 2007 has been procyclical or countercyclical. Procyclical theory predicts that birth rates increase in good economic times and fall in periods of economic crisis. The countercyclical theory posits the opposite, that fertility falls in good economic times and increases when the economy is sluggish. These two competing explanations are evaluated in the context of Canadian fertility rates over the period of 1971 to 2007. The results are more consistent with the countercyclical thesis.