Early Cohort Mortality Predicts the Cohort Rate of Aging: An Historical Analysis

Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, University of Southern California
Caleb E. Finch, University of Southern California

Life expectancy (LE) has continuously increased since the 1800s; yet, little is known of how Gompertz mortality acceleration has changed with increased LE and possible associations of early age mortality with mortality acceleration during aging. Using 630 European birth cohorts born in 1800-1915 from nine countries, we show that there is a consistent inverse relation between early age mortality and cohort mortality acceleration at older ages. We found that early age mortality (q0-10) explains about 80% of the variance in the Gompertz parameters between ages 40-90 for both genders suggesting a robust life course association. These findings extend the cohort associations of early exposure to infections with mortality rates at later ages.