A Competing Risk Approach to Studying AIDS/TB Mortality Consequence of Migration

Sulaimon A. Afolabi, University of the Witwatersrand
Philippe Bocquier, Université Catholique de Louvain
Kathleen Kahn, University of the Witwatersrand
Mark Collinson, University of the Witwatersrand

Many studies have shown that migration connotes grave implication for the spread of HIV infection. This engenders concerns in communities with high 'oscillatory' migration type and HIV prevalence. Employing competing risk approach, this paper investigates the AIDS/TB mortality consequence of migration by analysing how AIDS/TB mortality risk of migrants competes with other risks. Longitudinal data collected between 1992 and 2009 come from the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance system, set in rural South Africa. Mortality level has increased for about threefold during the studied years with AIDS/TB among migrants contributing almost 80%. Thus, migration had a higher effect on AIDS/TB mortality than on other causes of death. Migration is an important factor in the AIDS/TB mortality of South Africa populace. Intervention efforts should be focused on the left behind spouses of the migrant in the sending communities and the migrant themselves.