Selection in Times of Crisis: Exploring Selectivity of Mexican Return-Migration in 2005-2010

Claudia Masferrer, McGill University
Jeffrey S. Passel, Pew Hispanic Center
Carla Pederzini, Universidad Iberoamericana

Recently released data from the 2010 Mexican Census shows a large increase of return-migrants from the United States. This paper intends to measure age, gender and educational selectivity of Mexican return-migrants from the US during the period 2005-2010. Focusing on the differences in return before and after 2008, we aim to contribute to the understanding of the impacts of the adverse environment of late 2000s. We address three main research questions: Are Mexican returnees living in 2010 in Mexico selected by sex, age and education? Can we observe a particular selectivity pattern during the 2008-2009 recession? How do selectivity patterns differ by gender? Using recent data from both countries (the Mexican and US censuses of 2010, and the ACS) we estimate emigration rates to Mexico of Mexican-born in the United States by sex, age and educational level. We pay special attention to educational level in order to make appropriate comparisons.