Out-of-Union Fertility in Paraguay

Emily Vala-Haynes, University of Pennsylvania
Claudia Valeggia, University of Pennsylvania

Between 1998 and 2008, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Paraguay decreased from 4.3 lifetime births per woman to 2.5 births, a significant portion of which come from out-of-union childbearing. Given the connection between out-of-union fertility and both unmet need for family planning and negative child outcomes, this study aims to evaluate the impact of out-of-union births on the TFR of the Paraguayan population and to identify related factors. We use data from the 2008 National Survey of Demography and Sexual and Reproductive Health to provide an estimation of Paraguay’s TFR using the Bongaarts model, and evaluate the predictive capacity of the model using a revision by Stover that includes out-of-union sexual activity. Finally, we explore significant predictors of out-of-union births in Paraguay. Results show that age, region, religiosity, and wealth are associated with likelihood of experiencing an out-of-union first birth.