Fertility Stalls in the Middle East: The Case of Jordan

Valeria Cetorelli, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)
Tiziana Leone, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

Most of the recent literature on fertility stall has concentrated on sub-Saharan Africa and has highlighted flaws in DHS data. No similar detailed research exists for presumed stalls occurring in countries outside that region. This is particularly surprising when considering that cases of fertility stalls have also been suggested in Middle Eastern countries. This paper is the first to study an apparent fertility stall in Jordan, using five DHS, and to carry out a rigorous three-stage analysis to assess its genuineness. The analysis demonstrates that not only is the stall real and not due to data errors, but it is also one of the longest lasting recently assessed. This suggests the need for further research on similar stalls in neighbouring countries and in-depth investigations of their determinants.