Fertility Decline in Urban and Rural Areas in 17 Sub-Saharan African Countries

Kazuyo Machiyama, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Richard Silverwood, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Andy Sloggett, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
John G. Cleland, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

Urbanization is one of the most significant demographic transformations in sub-Saharan Africa. Given the rapid urbanization and slower fertility decline at national level in sub-Saharan Africa , we examined patterns of fertility decline in urban and rural areas, and whether gaps have narrowed over the past 3 decades in 17 sub-Saharan African countries. We applied the approach developed by Murray et al. for child mortality estimation (2007) and analyze 65 Demographic and Health Surveys using Loess regression and adjusting for common errors. This allows us to provide robust estimates and uncertainty intervals. The results show varied patterns of decline across the countries. Fertility decline was more confined in urban areas and the gaps between the two areas have widened in Cameroon and Zambia. On the other hand, the fertility declined almost in parallel and the gaps remained in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal.