Aging and Cognitive Impairment: Modeling the Trajectories Using Dynamic Microsimulation Approach

Binod Nepal, University of Canberra
Laurie Brown, University of Canberra
Heather Booth, Australian National University
Sophie Pennec, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Richard Burns, Australian National University
Kaarin Anstey, Australian National University
Kim Kiely, Australian National University

This paper presents an application of dynamic microsimulation technique in modelling future scenarios of age-related disabilities and associated lifestyle risk factors, with a focus on cognitive impairment or probable dementia. The incidence of probable dementia was modelled on the basis of age, sex and education. The model tracked various age-cohorts, the youngest being aged 45-49 years at the beginning of the simulation. Future age specific prevalence and incidence rates of probable dementia for the cohort aged 45-49 years are broadly in agreement with external cross-sectional estimates. Average expected years of life lived with dementia are also comparable to estimates based on life table method. The validated outcomes serve as a baseline against which results from further policy analysis from an enhanced model could be compared.