Proximate Determinants and Their Influences on Fertility Reduction in Vietnam

Pradeep Kumar Tripathy, Utkal University
Nguyen Thi Ngoc Lan, Vietnam General Statistics Office
Kailash Chandra Das, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

In the present study, an attempt has been made to estimate the fertility-inhibiting effects of the four important proximate determinants i.e. marriage, contraception, induced abortion and postpartum infecundability in Vietnam. The study is based using data obtained from the 1997 and 2002 round of the Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey. Bongaarts model is used to determine the contribution of the proximate determinants in fertility change. The analysis shows that change in proportion of married women, contraceptive use and induced abortion are generally the main factors responsible for fertility change at the national level and rural areas in Vietnam . For urban areas, induced abortion, postpartum infecundability and proportion of marriage are the main factors responsible for fertility change during the same period whereas contraceptive use has marginal effect. The estimated TFR is probably smaller than the actual one and the difference between the two has narrowed down over the period.