Excess of Marriageable Males and Violent Crime in China and South Korea, 1970-2008

Cheng Lu, Nanjing University

The extremely rapid decline in fertility rate and the sharp rise in sex ratio at birth in China since the 1980s have led to much concern about increasing excess of marriageable males and violent crimes in coming decades. Our research addresses the gap of previous studies on low-sex-ratio western societies and high-sex-ratio Asian societies by assuming a U relationship between excess or shortage of marriageable males and crimes. By using Korea case (1970-2008) for reference, the effect of excess males on violent crimes in China (1982-2008) is examined separately from the percentage of young male in population. Other control variables include GINI coefficient, Ln of GDP per capita and its quadratic term. The quadratic term of percentage of marriageable males is significantly related to increased assault rate in China andassault, robbery and rape rates in Korea, suggesting that either an excess or shortage of marriageable males will cause some corresponding rise in crime rates.