Fertility Trends in Syria: Application of the Own-Children Method

Rana Youssef, Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre la Défense

The analysis of the fertility transition in Syria allows us to distinguish several phases. The first phase was when fertility reached world records, and resisted any change. Followed by the phase of rapid decline in the mid 1980s, and lastly by a phase of slow decrease or a phase of quasi-stagnation in fertility. Despite the interest to represent more accurate estimates of recent Syrian fertility levels and trends, very few studies have been devoted to this question. This paper addresses this issue by trying to review and analyze trends in fertility over the last three decades. Fertility rates are estimated by the own-children method using data from the PAPCHILD 1993, the PAPFAM 2001 and the MICS3 2006 surveys. Despite the significant decline in Syrian fertility between the early 80s and the mid-2000s, it is in a phase of stall or temporary blockage. Our arguments suggest continued stall of fertility at least in the visible future