Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Counties: Evaluation of Postcensal Population Estimates and Census 2010 Results

Ben C. Bolender, U.S. Census Bureau
Irene Dokko, U.S. Census Bureau
Jamie Lewis, U.S. Census Bureau

This paper examines the distribution of differences between the U.S. Census Bureau’s official postcensal county population estimates series and Census 2010 across metropolitan, micropolitan, and nonmetropolitan counties. The postcensal population estimates were developed from a cohort component approach utilizing Census 2000 as a base and estimating forward using updated administrative record inputs. The differences between the estimates and Census 2010 are assessed using a variety of measures, including the mean absolute percent error, the mean algebraic percent error, the root mean square error, counts of extreme percent error, and the total absolute error of shares. This paper presents a brief look at estimates evaluation results across all counties, compares the estimates and Census counts across metropolitan, micropolitan, and nonmetropolitan county classifications, and examines these differences in light of more general population size measures.