Main Determinants of the Dynamics of Poverty (Chronically and Transient) in Egypt, between 1998- 2006

Dina Armanious, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University
Yasmine El-Hossiney, Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC)

This study aims to investigate the dynamics of households' movements in and out poverty and identify determinants of those movements between 1998 and 2006. To achieve the goal of this study, poor people are classified into chronically and transient poor. Second, the likelihoods of entering and exiting poverty in Egypt during the period (1998-2006) are calculated. Finally, the main factors that increase households' likelihood of being chronically poor, entering poverty and exiting from poverty are examined (With special emphasis on labor market or employment variables). This study depends on 1998 Egypt Labor Market survey (ELMS) and 2006 panel ELMS. The main determinants that increase households' likelihood of entering poverty, are the education level and sector of work for household head, source of water, change in the household share of private sector employees, government employees, unpaid working persons, change in the household position in wealth index, dwelling ownership, region of residence.