Lung Cancer in France: Will Women's Mortality Levels Ever Reach Those of Men?

France Meslé, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Jacques Vallin, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

For several decades, highly contrasting trends in male and female lung cancer mortality have been observed in most developed countries. The decrease in lung cancer mortality has contributed significantly to male life expectancy improvement, while its increase among women has prevented female life expectancy from improving as far as expected. First observed in England, and then in the USA, the phenomenon has spread to European countries. In France, the reversal of male mortality occurred at the turn of the 1990s, while female mortality is still increasing and has even accelerated recently. Is it reasonable to predict that female lung cancer mortality will overtake male mortality within a few decades? By analysing long-term trends in age-specific mortality rates, by period and by cohort, different strategies for forecasting lung cancer mortality will be discussed. Some predict a potential cross-over, others not. Impacts on male and female life expectancy will be also measured.