Projecting Fertility for the 2012 National Population Projections

Grayson K. Vincent, U.S. Census Bureau
Christine E. Guarneri, U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. Census Bureau periodically produces population projections based on the components of population change: births, deaths, and international migration. This paper examines the development of assumptions on fertility trends by age, race, and Hispanic origin for use in projecting the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs). The methodological challenges of projecting fertility will also be explored, such as assigning race and Hispanic origin to future births, determining the future racial and ethnic composition of potential fathers, and identifying the propensity for specific combinations of race and Hispanic origin groups to produce children. Finally, preliminary projected rates of fertility by race and Hispanic origin for use in the next set of Census Bureau population projections will be presented.