The Impact of AIDS Mortality on Indirect Estimates of Fertility

Thomas M. McDevitt, U.S. Census Bureau

This study investigates the impact of AIDS mortality on own-children fertility estimates in affected countries. Previous research has focused on the impact of AIDS mortality on indirect estimates of child and adult mortality, and on the utility of own-children estimation of fertility in countries suffering from HIV/AIDS epidemics. This study differs from previous research in that it investigates the bias in own-children estimates of total fertility rate (TFR) associated with the distortion in adult female mortality rates from AIDS. The study compares TFRs from Demographic and Health Surveys from 13 Sub-Saharan African countries using life tables based on child mortality assuming a fixed level of life expectancy and North model mortality, a trend in mortality level, and a pattern of mortality incorporating AIDS. It concludes with a note about the sensitivity of own-children TFR estimates to differences between model mortality and with-AIDS mortality across three regions in Sub-Saharan Africa.