The Effect of HIV on Micro-Level Correlates of Adult Mortality in Rural Malawi

Brian Chin, Asian Development Bank (ADB)

The current knowledge on determinants of adult mortality in developing countries with a generalized AIDS epidemic, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, is limited. This paper examines the effect of HIV on micro-level demographic and socioeconomic correlates of adult mortality in rural Malawi from 1998 to 2010. Using survival analysis, the results indicate higher mortality in the Southern region compared to the Central and Northern regions. Schooling is associated with lower mortality for men, but not for women due to the high opportunity cost of marriage and HIV risk exposure in singlehood. Divorced women and widowed men have higher mortality. Muslims have a particularly high mortality disadvantage due to HIV. Controlling for HIV testing, a proxy for health seeking behavior, drastically reduces estimated associations of mortality compared to controlling for HIV positivity. Mortality for HIV-positive respondents accounts for almost a quarter of the mortality burden during this period.