Evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008 and 2009 National Population Projections

Jennifer M. Ortman, U.S. Census Bureau

This paper evaluates the accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Census 2000-based national population projections released in 2008 and 2009. The population projections are evaluated through comparisons to the 2010 Census counts and the Population Estimates Program’s national population estimates. Projections of the components of population change (births, deaths, and net international migration) for the period from 2000 through 2010 are compared to the Population Estimates Program’s estimates of these components. The results provide a tool to inform data users about the intrinsic uncertainty of projections data. The evaluations also yield valuable insights to assist in the development of the Census Bureau’s 2010 Census-based population projections.