Disentangling the Spatial Concentration and Temporal Stickiness of Poverty: Industrial Structure, Racial/Ethnic Composition, and the Complex Links to Poverty

Katherine J. Curtis, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Heather A. O'Connell, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Perla Reyes, University of California, Santa Cruz
Jun Zhu, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This study disentangles the social-structural, spatial, and temporal dimensions of aggregate-level poverty in the US Upper Midwest between 1960 and 2010. Central focus is on the links between local-area poverty, industrial structure and racial/ethnic composition, and the spatial and temporal dimensions of the linkages. During the study period, the region underwent significant industrial restructuring and dramatic change in racial/ethnic concentration. Using newly developed statistical methods for spatial-temporal regression, we explore three hypotheses related to the spatial and temporal dimensions of the complex relationship between poverty, industrial structure, and race/ethnicity. Our approach permits the simultaneous analysis of the multiple dimensions, yielding reliable and interpretable estimates. Results inform theory about the interactive association between industry and race/ethnicity, and its implications for the concentration and persistence of poverty.